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Daily Data: Excess Retirees
Lots of people retired and they're not coming back
A worker shortage gets shorter because old folks said “sayonara.”
Everything reads better in your browser or in the app. The footnotes especially, and Random Walk is really leaning into the footnotes. Plus, if you have the app, you can set delivery to “app only” and then my daily barrage will feel less like a barrage. Unfortunately, substack does not yet have a “Weekly Digest” option, but I’m hectoring them aplenty.
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The pandemic “pulled forward” demand for retirement, such that there are now more seniors out of the workforce than expected:
The gap actually got wider in 2022, then a bit narrower, and now it looks like it’s getting wider again.
It means there are about 2 million fewer workers than we thought there’d be—and the “worker shortage” (i.e. a secularly aging population) has arrived a bit sooner than we thought.
Long time readers of Random Walk will remember this observation from almost 2 years ago when inflation was still transitory, so I’ll take the bow.
Maybe the 60-69 year olds are the ones who sold all the houses in the 2021 boom and now they’re renting? Cashed-out at the peak, you crafty geezers, you.
No idea, I just liked the chart.
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