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Daily Data: NYC is a bit different now
People are still leaving, but not quite as many as before
People left NYC and most have not returned. The City is different(ish) now.
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New York City is different now
The NYC Citizens Budget Commission (CBC) put together a nice presentation on some of the demographic changes in NYC.
There’s nothing shocking in it, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
NYC is definitely still losing people, but (a) that started in 2017; and (b) it’s slowed somewhat in 2022:
The widening orange bar in 2022 shows that international migration is driving a lot of the growth (but some of the domestic out-migration slowed as well).
Especially richer and Millennialer people
While pandemic-era outmigration was definitely a continuation or acceleration of a trend, the composition of more recent “move outs” definitely skewed richer, Millennialer, and more educationally attained:
Educationally attained (and employed):
Amazingly enough, only 13% of the leavers have come back, with nearly half of them still in other states.
Jobs are back, though
At the same time, overall NYC jobs have fully recovered:
Fewer retail and hospitality jobs, but more healthcare and business services (whatever that means).1
Tax revenue is still concerning
The economics of a relatively wealthy outmigration aren’t lost on city, which is good to see.
Roughly ~1% of the taxpayers (i.e. millionaires) pay ~40+% of the income taxes:
. . . but NYC has a shrinking share of millionaires, and a lagging millionaire growth rate as well:
California is still growing millionaires on trees, apparently.
Finally, the impact on commercial office is substantial, but not insurmountable, with an estimated $2.8B in tax revenue considered “at risk”:
This relationship, between rents and vacancy, presumably cannot hold up . . . either rents come down or vacancy does, but it seems hard to image they both just sit where they are:
Vacancy rates have doubled, but asking rents are flat.
Doesn’t seem likely.
Bigger picture, there are definitely some changes—and an acceleration of some gloomier trends—but it’s also city of ~8M people, so a few hundred thousand in either direction is a drop in the pail.
Mind those millionaires though . . . that’s 40% of the tax base.
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Interestingly, ecommerce related taxes have gone up quite a bit. I suppose New Yorkers like to shop online, rather than bother with stores: