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Daily Data: Population forecast is in
We're gonna be shrinking sooner that we thought
More downward revisions to the population forecast, but fortunately, forecasting is hard, so we can still turn this thing around.
Also, some bonus cool things for the weekend.
Everything reads better in your browser or in the app. The footnotes especially, and Random Walk is really leaning into the footnotes. Plus, if you have the app, you can set delivery to “app only” and then my daily barrage will feel less like a barrage. Unfortunately, substack does not yet have a “Weekly Digest” option, but I’m hectoring them aplenty.
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US Population projects smaller
Census released its population projections, and for the US, the projections keep getting worse:
It’s pretty hard to forecast anything out to 2080 (when supposedly the population peaks), but the downward revisions continue apace.
The current plan is to rely almost entirely on immigration,1but of course, that’s a terrible plan. Again, immigration is a good and useful thing, but as a sole source of population growth, it presents all sorts of challenges, and reveals a much deeper sickness.
Random Walk hates to come back to this well twice in two weeks, but the failure to consider, or even address, the nation’s apparent “opt out” of perhaps one of the most basic social institutions (or this one) is somewhere between bizarre and irresponsible.
Believe me when I tell you that Random Walk is a big supporter of different strokes, for different folks, and sure, babymaking isn’t for everyone, but it’s also not for no one.
I mean, look at this, just look at it:
35% of women aged 25-44 have 0 children, up from 27% just 10 years ago, and up from 17% 50 years ago.
You’re not gonna make babies living with mom and dad, young man:
Hopefully that’s just a rise of intergenerational households (but I doubt it).
This is not a drill, people.
We’ve got some profound cultural change, right there, and it’s not for the better. No sir.2
It’s a very big deal. Wake up.
Bonus cool thing(s)
Because that was kind of gloomy, I will throw these bonus goodies that are both neat.
Generally, in baseball it’s a good idea to hit the ball hard and frequently (and with an upward trajectory).
Hitting it hard usually comes at the expense of hitting it frequently (and vice versa), but not if you’re Ronald Acuna:
The closer you are to the top-right corner, the closer you are to invincible. Acuna’s pretty good, I guess.3
Satellites are pretty
"In late January I went to the Pinnacles, Western Australia, to shoot the stars. I noticed an unusually large amount of lines in my 3 hour photos. I decided to merge the satellite tracks into one image to show the night sky”—Joshua Rozells, Amateur Astronomer
Satellites are pretty.
Hooray for human achievement. We can do great things, when we try.
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Under the “no immigration” scenario, the population peaks in just seven years, whereas the low immigration scenario, we get until 2040.
Maybe everyone needs to reread Children of Men, or watch the movie.
This too, is just ridiculously disturbing, and one can’t help but wonder if the pedagogical failures are connected somehow.
College kids are petty tyrants:
One can only conclude that college kids are from an entirely different country and we should shut down all college until we can figure out what the heck is going on.
Truthfully, I don’t blame the kids so much as the colleges. College kids are impressionable herd animals. I certainly was. Colleges, however, have been robbing the American people blind for decades with all their “toxic” loans.
That’s Yandy Diaz a little below him, by the way, a hard and frequent contact machine in his own right.