Deflation Nation

Reasons for hope. And concern. But also hope. Plus: how much infrastructure does $1 Trillion in infrastructure buy?

Random Walk is back at it, sooner than anyone expected, with variations on a theme.

Things we think

Inflation Nation (Reprise)

“The Personal Consumption Expenditure or PCE price index climbed to .4% in July . . . the fifth big increase in a row” thus reporteth MarketWatch.

They even included a comforting graphic to keep track of all the different indicators:

Not to worry, though, once again the experts assure that everything will be fine “once the economy returns to normal.” In the previous episode, we muddled through what kind of “normal” would actually be deflationary, and we concluded that it’s probably not “spending more.” My assumption, however, was that “normal spending” = “more spending,” but maybe not?

According to 90 West, Covid-times cohort spending is indeed a bit wonky: