Discounts are back!

Too little stuff became too much stuff, mixed news for e-commerce, and housing is right where we thought it would be

Doom and gloom is in the air, but there are some silver linings—it’s all about managing expectations.

Things we think

Exit shortages, enter surpluses

A few weeks back, big-box retailers like Walmart, Target, and Costco disappointed everyone with their earnings. It would be sad, but not surprising if, after two years of non-stop shopping, consumers started tapping the brakes. Bad news for the big-box retailers. Ugh, recession is nigh.

That isn’t actually what happened, however. Revenues were actually fine—hooray!—but it was other things that disappointed the Street, like expenses (i.e. fuel), product mix (i.e. one-time purchases v. recurring items), and, here’s the real kicker, TOO MUCH STUFF. After two years of “supply chain shortages” (which weren’t actually supply-chain shortages so much as massive demand surpluses), we now have a goods surplus. Good news for the bargain hunters.

Interesting aside, the leading indicator of the inventory build-up is apparently van rates . . . which is i…