Don't call it a comeback (for EVs)
Don't call it a comeback (for EVs)
EVs+Hybrids continue to gain share, and it's got nothing to do with charging stations (or not)
EVs gain share again
hybrids lead the way, but not for any love of hybrids
luxury is down on its luck
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After hitting a little bit of a rut, the share of EVs+Hybrids vehicle sales increased slightly last quarter:
Combined EV+Hybrids are now ~19% of all new “light duty vehicles” (which is what normal people would call “cars.”)
The keen (and not-so-keen) observer will notice that hybrid vehicles, in particular, appear to be leading the charge (no pun intended), while full EVs have slumped.
Some will conclude simply “Hybrids good, full EV bad because charging something something . . .” Others might take it a step further to lambast the stupid hippies, or big bad Elon, and say, “hahaha, I told you so! Of course you now regret having to charge your car everywhere!! Stupid electric cars!”
Those people will be wrong and foolish.
Hybrids are better in one respect
Nothing about people’s preferences for EVs or Hybrid has changed.
The only thing that’s changed is purchasing power, and the EVs are basically all luxury cars, while the much less sexy hybrids, are reasonably priced.
To wit:
U.S. luxury vehicle sales accounted for 16.6% of the total light-duty market in 2Q24, while luxury vehicles made up 73.8% of total battery electric sales,
Yes, 74% of EV sales were luxury because luxury is basically all the EVs.
And what percent of hybrids were luxury?
[Luxury accounted for] 8.3% of hybrid sales.
Ahhh. No wonder hybrid is running ahead. Because people can actually afford them.
Look, Random Walk likes to be right, and point out when others are wrong. It’s not the most becoming feature, but it is what it is.
For those unwilling to click through the link, here’s what I wrote ~year ago:
“‘Betting on luxury’ is an odd choice, given the timing.”
But, yeah, 70% of the EVs are luxury, while only 30% of the hybrids are luxury. That hybrids are selling, has nothing to do with charging or not.
Luxury down on its luck
Look, luxury is getting hammered everywhere—it’s not just EVs:
Luxury consumer spending is either somewhat negative or very negative, depending on how many types of luxury you’re trying to sell (and multibrand is worst of all).
So yeah, if you sell it (cheaper), they will come.
The other thing that’s worth pointing out is that the EV transition continues apace. Random Walk is (rightfully) skeptical of some of the best laid plans of mice and men, but in this case, the plan appears to be working (notwithstanding a rate-driven blip).
Sure, there’s an open question around where all the old batteries might go, or whether we’ll fry the grid in the meantime, but if going electric was the goal, then going electric appears to be where we’re heading.
Previously, on Random Walk
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