I used ChatGPT to help underwrite an investment idea

o3 is a pretty darn good analyst, if you ask good questions

For the first time ever, Random Walk and the robot go stock-picking.

It was so much fun, I think I’ll do it again, some time.

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I used ChatGPT to help underwrite an investment idea, and it was awesome

Random Walk is interested in s-mid caps that stand to benefit from an increase in the secular demand for energy, with a bias towards natural gas, given that renewables and nuclear both have near-term challenges.

I looked for companies with strong operating margins that had the opportunity to grow through some combination of top-line growth, improved margins (both via operating efficiency and pricing-power), and multiple-expansion.

Lo and behold, I found one.

And then I used ChatGPT o3 (plus a little AlphaSense) to help me understand and model the investment case. o3 didn’t write this, but I excerpted liberally to demonstrate the sorts of questions that me an my robot pal iterated on.¹

In the end, I got comfortable enough to open a small position (and o3 is truly a force-multiplier, to put it mildly). The upside is real, and the downside is manageable.

Mostly, this is an experiment, and I’m excited to see how it plays out, for better or for worse.

As per always, all feedback is welcome. There’s a non-zero chance of stupid mistakes, given how quickly this came together, and there’s an even higher chance of more subtle mistakes, because that’s the nature of things.

OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER: DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SELL, OR HOLD A SECURITY. NOTHING SHOULD BE RELIED UPON. EVERY WORD OF THIS IS PROBABLY A LIE. RANDOM WALK HAS CONFLICTS UP THE WAZOO AND ZERO SCRUPLES, TO BOOT.

Have you ever heard of outsourced gas compression? Yeah, me neither, but you’re gonna love it