If student loans can't be repaid, does that mean they're toxic?

Plus a wrong prediction finally becomes right, asides about India, the cost of capital in motion, and savings still in excess

Random Walk has some longer reads cooking, but feedback on these quick(er) hitters has been positive, so I’ll keep them coming, in the interim.

Charts of the week

Home improvement it’s fine the way it is

Long ago, Random Walk foretold of a decline in the home improvement segment that would spell trouble for companies like Home Depot HD 0.00%↑ and Lowe’s LOW 0.00%↑ (particularly to the extent their “Pro” businesses are increasingly large shares of their overall businesses).¹ However, Random Walk mused that the trouble wouldn’t arrive right away—it would take at least a few months because the backlog of “in progress” jobs was substantial enough to support demand.

It may sound a little obvious, but it wasn’t exactly consensus—management and experts alike said that everything would be fine because (a) “renovate” would be the natural alternative to “buy/sell;” (b) people had tons of home equity to lever; and (c) fairies, rainbows and gumdrops. Random Walk disagreed.

Well, not only was RW’s prediction ex-consens…