Is normalization turning intro stress?

If not, then what's all the hullabaloo? The data shows more of the same, but maybe that's enough

• “Sudden” downward changes to consumer behavior don’t look sudden at all

• Travel, and discretionary, oh my!

• If it’s not new, then why all the new concern?

• Beating the bush for new evidence of distress and coming up mostly empty, but not entirely so

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Is normalization turning into stress?

Random Walk has been observing the cautious consumer for the better part of the year now.

It’s been fairly obvious that consumers have concentrated on things like groceries and gas (and eschewed discretionary purchases). Likewise, trade downs have been evident all over the place, and value has been a winning proposition for retailers. To be sure, spending continued to grow at a tepid pace—because again, everyone remained employed—but the overall picture was “steady as she goes,” and not “let the good times roll.”

That being the case, it’s odd to see “alarm bells ringing” for something that’s been going on for a while now.

“Sudden” swings, or just steady decline?

Consider that “Flights, hotels and Parks are all flashing travel warning signs,” because consumer interest appears to be waning.

Evidence of a slowdown is everywhere: Online lodging platform Airbnb Inc. plunged by a record after warning that growth in bookings is decelerating, even in the middle of the peak summer season. European discount carrier Ryanair Holdings Plc went from expecting a modest rise in air fares to warning they’ll be “materially lower” because of thrifty consumers. And travel platform Expedia Group Inc. said Thursday that it’s revising down its annual outlook for a second time this year.

According to travel advisory Embark Beyond, which serves primarily US-based ultra-high net worth individuals, the average trip length is down 14% year-over-year, now averaging 6.2 days rather than 7.8. Even among its deep-pocketed travelers, the word of the year is “value,” said Embark co-founder Jack Ezon.

Yes, consumers are definitely pulling back on their purse strings.

But, does this look like a recent trend to you?

Bloomberg

Site visits for top travel brands have been decelerating for basically an entire year.

Here’s a look at total debit and credit card spending per household:

BofA

According to BofA, total household spending has been pretty flat for a while now.

Oh no, discretionary and luxury retailers are under pressure!

Look at Topgolf, the very fun, but pretty expensive golf simulator experience:

Chartr

. . . TopGolf sales have “recently” been declining for basically the last five quarters.

The point is that if consumer spending habits are tripping the klaxons, then they’ve been blaring for a while now.

But they haven’t, so what gives?

If changes aren’t so sudden, then why all the sudden concern?