Netflix having a blockbuster moment

Shortform video is swallowing the world

Publishing note: Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time.

• netflix having a blockbuster moment

• streaming reinvents cable

• step-change in shopping habits

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Keeping it short and light.

YouTube is under-monetized (reprise)

I know the ‘platform shift’ that everyone cares about is AI, but the shift to short-form video is also important and still probably under appreciated.

I mean, we all know that Netflix is a bossmode incumbent disruptor that put Blockbuster out to pasture. But is Netflix having its own Blockbuster moment?

Goldman

Youtube continues to extend its market-leading share of US TV viewership (this time) at Netflix’s expense.

This data is always a bit noisy, and while YT has been running away from Netflix for ~2 years, this is the first time that Netflix lost substantial share (as opposed to merely staying flat).

I mean, while streaming is busily recreating cable . . .

Ad-tier streaming subs have doubled in two-years, and comprise the lion’s share of the net-new ads.

Antenna

. . . YT, Meta and the bunch are creating a whole new dominant category.

And again, part of why people are still sleeping on the shift to YT and shortform video more generally, is because of the generational step-change. The youngs consume it a lot more than the olds (although even that is changing). It’s one of those things that for some (older) people, basically none of their friends consume it, while for other (younger) people, they don’t know anyone who doesn’t consume it all the time.

In terms of monetization, the generational gaps are pretty massive

Morning Consult

The share of GenZ who report making purchases on social media is nearly 3X the (rising) share of Boomers who make purchases on social media.

Even relative to GenX/All US adults, the gap is pretty big.

And it’s unlikely that the youngs are going to “grow out” of this behavior. It’s far more likely that when Gen Z gets older, they will just buy their version of life-alert from a geriatric Mr. Beast, or whomever becomes the king or queen of senior-citizen influencer marketing.

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