Optimism unbound and 7 charts to inform and delight
Other riffs on interstate migration, migrant employment, and the housing demand surplus
stock market optimism unbound
one state takes all the people
in this country, migrants get to work early and often (but also, some concerns)
the SF Fed capitulates, “actually there is no housing shortage.”
👉👉👉Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun. Seven quick charts to inform and delight
Short(ish) post today because I had lots of other things to do, so just a few mostly unrelated things of interest.
Optimism unbound
All the experts agree that the stock market is going to keep-on-ripping next year:
The average forecast gain on the S&P is 12.3%, and every analyst expects at least some gains.
I suppose after consensus bearishness in 2023, the street has been duly chastened.
The universal optimism is pretty remarkable, though
It’s striking, first, that it’s so positive. That’s more than noteworthy when the market ended 2024 at or near all-time high valuations, even though support from low bond yields had been removed. The main indexes have been driven by Big Tech, which is not cheap.
Yes, tech stocks could prove decent value if they grow as optimists expect, but their extreme multiples of revenue suggest stunning optimism that profit margins can be maintained. For almost all of Wall Street to expect a double-figure year when the market leaders are priced like this is quite something
Consensus expectations for growth off an already all-time high base is “quite something.”
I suppose there’s no reason it can’t be done.
Florida takes all the people
Everyone kinda knows that Florida (and Texas) are the big winners in population growth and domestic migration.
Basically, everyone knows that a lot of people moved to Florida.
But, I had no idea it was this many people:
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