Prices say panic, but data says otherwise

The underlying data says "this is fine," actually

• the big sell-off continues

• but, the Almighty Consumer, outside of DC, appears just fine (except for all the usual reasons)

• wither weather big spender?

• an airline blames “macro uncertainty,” but maybe higher prices for lesser service wasn’t such a sure-fire idea

• don’t confuse a two-off for a trend

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Prices say panic, but data says otherwise

Well, at this point it seems like the “market” has taken tariff panic to heart, at least for a moment.

That’s a big fat selloff:

That’s a full-on ‘doom is nigh’ defensive move.

Even though the evidence of a recession is vanishingly thin, investors seem to have convinced themselves otherwise.

Random Walk doesn’t give investment advice, and no one should rely on anything I ever write, but my bet is that this is wildly oversold.

The Almighty Consumer appears just fine (repeat, ad infinitum)

I mean, can you see the consumer “softness” in household spending?

If consumers are slowing down, it’s not really showing up in the transaction data:

BofA

Total household spending is back to moderate growth, after a weather-related drop in the latter half of February.

And if not weather causing that drop, then what would explain the uniquely strong performance of the West (or the rapid recovery of the rest of the country right as February came to an end)? As best as I can tell, consumers seem to be spending pretty much as cautiously fine as they did before.

To be fair, D.C. specifically experienced slower growth than the nation as a whole, which might explain some of the hysteria amongst the chattering class.

HH spending was down 0.3% in the Washington MSA (in contrast to the +1.4% nationally).

DOGE layoffs are causing some localized pain, but the rest of the country appears to be pretty much fine. And it’s not just BofA’s data either.

JPM spend tracker tells a pretty similar story: