September 21 2024 Weekly Recap & Good Reads

Last week in Random Walk+Good Reads, all in one email

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Last week in Random Walk . . .

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👇Here’s what Random Walk published last week 👇

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Analysis & Ideas

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Macro & Markets

China startup collapse (or maybe not). Some data shows the number of new venture backed startups in China dropping to zero. The implication is that China has stopped innovating. Others have questioned the data, but the whole thing seems kind of silly. I’m pretty sure venture is challenged in China, just like it is in the US. I would not use the “number of new venture backed companies” as some proxy for innovation.

The Fed’s lone dissenter. There is always one.

PE/VC

Vista, Blackstone seek $3.2B of Private Debt for Smartsheet acquisition. Woohoo, deals!

Alt lending's effect on banks. Deloitte delivers lots of charts and data on the rise of private credit and the impact its had on bank lending.

Real Estate & Migration

DC’s largest suburban county puts new limits on data center locations. My prediction continues to be that fair-weather-YIMBYs will rediscover landuse regs when it suits them.

Where migrants have moved. Scrollytell from Bloomberg on where migrants have moved throughout the country. Political priors are in play, so take it all with a grain of salt, but the visualizations are nice.

Tech

SaaS isn’t dead (yet) and AI could make it bigger. Thoughtful and datadriven piece on public saas cos, where they are, and where they might go. See also FOMU: fear of messing up (and SaaS Demand Index)

Energy

AI growth will worsen copper shortfall. I’ve become so used to reading about how some commodity or metal is going to become chronically scarce, but it never seems to happen (at least for very long). It does not appear that we’ve got a shortage of stuff.

AI

OpenAI just unleashed an alien of extraordinary ability. Timothy Lee on the release of Strawberry. Plenty to chew on.

Labor markets

Lifetime fiscal impact of immigrants. Lots of data on the fiscal impact of immigrants. I’ll probably dig into it another time. Fundamentally, I think these kinds of estimates are basically impossible to make (because there is too much flapping of butterfly wings), but I admire the effort.

Consumer

Leasing EVs as a cost-saving strategy to move inventory. Yes, well, cutting costs will move inventory. EVs are just as popular as ever though (provided they’re not too expensive).

Regulators

FTC finds ‘vast surveillance,’ and Fintechs mull bank charters as regulators stifle partnerships. Just the latest in the most important story story that does not get nearly enough attention: the ever-increasing powergrab by regime functionaries, and their assault on huge swathes of commercial life (as well as their political enemies). There is no better way to describe the relentless demands and declarations by professional rule-makers on businesses they did nothing to build and know nothing about, who are nonetheless totally indifferent to the immeasurable costs and consequences of their actions, because those costs and consequences are born entirely by others.

The same petty tyrants who decry zoning as a supply barrier to housing (undoubtedly as a pretense to centralize zoning authority for themselves), are busily throttling down on every sector of the economy as quickly as they can flick their pens. The irony is that, in their typical sclerotic fashion, it took these vindictive bullies 4 years to kick their European fantasies into high gear, just as Europe finally begins to point fingers at their own breed of gutless hall-monitors that helped suffocate a once-great civilization.

If it sounds extreme, it’s not (even as you say to yourself, “it is,” I assure you, it’s not.) These people enrich themselves, while inflicting more useless and costly drag on more innocent people than probably any other economic force in the world. That we’ve gotten used to it (and learned to accept the various rationalizations at face value), doesn’t make it any less true.

People & Culture

Riffs on themes . . .Getting to grandparenting age, without the grandkids, China’s thriving ‘silver economy’ and Longevity Clubs and Hotels

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