So you say you want a recession?

The Fed got what it was asking for, but it's not all bad . . . yet.

Random Walk peers into the crystal ball of consumer health, employment and housing and finds some good news, some bad news, some mixed news and everything in between.

Things we think

Best recession ever!

We are now in a recession. That’s not great, but it doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world.

To recap, the way Random Walk sees it, the increase in energy prices and money prices are mostly responsible for the economic slowdown:

• Higher energy prices leave less disposable income to spend on other things, which are in any event more expensive because they cost more money to produce and ship.

• Higher money prices make it less appealing to spend money generally because money is important, and when money is suddenly harder to get, it makes sense to hold on to what you have.

• These phenomena (and expectations around these phenomena) are reinforcing insofar as the less money someone else spends on my stuff and/or services, the less money I have to spend on someone else’s stuff and/or services, an…