There's also the inability to grasp that getting a college degree isn't the same accomplishment it was 1950. Or that old people who "lived within their means, (in what became an upper-class area) never owed anything but a mortgage" are usually lying.
yes, and all the small, ranch-style split-levels they owned are getting knocked-down in favor of "mcmansions" bc standards for what constitutes an upper middle class home have gone way up
unexpected naivety? (un)affordability is a real daily experience, but the complaining has nothing to do with that.
the majority of consumer items have only continued to climb since 2024, where it was the single-highest issue of self-reported voter concern alongside a dollar still losing purchasing power. stupid pollsters, they got ya again!
the few items that dropped lower after supply shocks are now the only mentions in media.
I saw a Youtube video recently that made an interesting argument. I think it was Gammon.
It argued that tariffs are having a huge negative impact that is not reflected in aggregate numbers. Essentially, it's an immense substitution effect. Tariffs remove cheaper imported goods from the shelves, forcing consumers to buy higher priced domestic goods. In effect, it is inflation that would not be reflected the aggregates. Obviously, this would have a much greater impact on less wealthy people. This makes intuitive sense to me but I don't have time to look into it or figure out how to quantify it. Maybe you have a thought.
there's definitely been some quality/size "shrinkflation," although I think the effects of tariffs are pretty mixed--also, I haven't seen evidence of that sort of substitution, but that doesn't mean it's not out there. I think it's just that the rate n' pace of relative progress has slowed down, and people don't see a path towards obtaining the status goods they covet.
Loved this piece. Could this be that people are the most dissatisfied when things are improving. They increase their expectations more faster than the economy can keep up. Kind of like how revolutions happen when things are getting better? That's all driven by memetic technologies as well.
I’d love to see that real wage chart extended backward to 2010 or better yet, 2000. It’s hard to argue that the labor market is no longer objectively employee-friendly as it was a few years ago. Things are worse by comparison to a massive sugar high for hiring. But is it worse than the longer term baseline? Marginally at best. There is a lot of recency bias at play imo.
There's also the inability to grasp that getting a college degree isn't the same accomplishment it was 1950. Or that old people who "lived within their means, (in what became an upper-class area) never owed anything but a mortgage" are usually lying.
yes, and all the small, ranch-style split-levels they owned are getting knocked-down in favor of "mcmansions" bc standards for what constitutes an upper middle class home have gone way up
unexpected naivety? (un)affordability is a real daily experience, but the complaining has nothing to do with that.
the majority of consumer items have only continued to climb since 2024, where it was the single-highest issue of self-reported voter concern alongside a dollar still losing purchasing power. stupid pollsters, they got ya again!
the few items that dropped lower after supply shocks are now the only mentions in media.
I saw a Youtube video recently that made an interesting argument. I think it was Gammon.
It argued that tariffs are having a huge negative impact that is not reflected in aggregate numbers. Essentially, it's an immense substitution effect. Tariffs remove cheaper imported goods from the shelves, forcing consumers to buy higher priced domestic goods. In effect, it is inflation that would not be reflected the aggregates. Obviously, this would have a much greater impact on less wealthy people. This makes intuitive sense to me but I don't have time to look into it or figure out how to quantify it. Maybe you have a thought.
there's definitely been some quality/size "shrinkflation," although I think the effects of tariffs are pretty mixed--also, I haven't seen evidence of that sort of substitution, but that doesn't mean it's not out there. I think it's just that the rate n' pace of relative progress has slowed down, and people don't see a path towards obtaining the status goods they covet.
You can change the name from Random Walk to Narrative buster!
Keep up the great work.
Loved this piece. Could this be that people are the most dissatisfied when things are improving. They increase their expectations more faster than the economy can keep up. Kind of like how revolutions happen when things are getting better? That's all driven by memetic technologies as well.
could be...they get anchored to rapid leaps forward (covid stimmies) and then mad when normalcy sets in?
I’d love to see that real wage chart extended backward to 2010 or better yet, 2000. It’s hard to argue that the labor market is no longer objectively employee-friendly as it was a few years ago. Things are worse by comparison to a massive sugar high for hiring. But is it worse than the longer term baseline? Marginally at best. There is a lot of recency bias at play imo.