5 charts on consumer credit
Daily Data: There's a lot of it, which is fine, but delinquencies are rising, which is less fine
Daily Data: 5 Charts on Consumer Credit
In today’s dispatch:
credit card debt is at an all-time high, but it’s also on-trend
delinquencies for all consumer credit are rising too—nothing crazy, but not entirely business-as-usual, either.
It’s the youngs and poors who are the worst offenders, but that’s usually the case. What’s different this time are Millennials and Boomers getting into the act, as well.
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Credit card debt is at an all time high!!
That sounds scary, but you can very easily say it’s just mean reversion.
In other words, we’re not that far from where we would have been, had we kept using our credit cards (instead of stimulus money):
We had a lull, then a spike, to get to the current $1.13T total.
Other kinds of borrowing, like auto (and mortgages, not pictured) are rolling over a bit. But that makes sense, given that rates are higher for cars and mortgages.
If you want to be pessimistic, you might say, “credit card debt is accelerating rapidly.”
That’s definitely true, and if it keeps going at this pace, then you might raise an (inflationary) eyebrow, but growth usually cools in Q1 (after holiday shopping is done).1
The other reason to be pessimistic (should you choose) is that delinquencies are rising, especially for credit card, and auto: