Random Walk

Random Walk

Share this post

Random Walk
Random Walk
5 charts on consumer credit
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

5 charts on consumer credit

Daily Data: There's a lot of it, which is fine, but delinquencies are rising, which is less fine

Moses Sternstein's avatar
Moses Sternstein
Feb 07, 2024
∙ Paid
3

Share this post

Random Walk
Random Walk
5 charts on consumer credit
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
1
Share

Daily Data: 5 Charts on Consumer Credit

In today’s dispatch:

  • credit card debt is at an all-time high, but it’s also on-trend

  • delinquencies for all consumer credit are rising too—nothing crazy, but not entirely business-as-usual, either.

  • It’s the youngs and poors who are the worst offenders, but that’s usually the case. What’s different this time are Millennials and Boomers getting into the act, as well.


👉👉👉Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. 

Credit card debt is at an all time high!!

Consumer credit card debt hit a new all time high.

That sounds scary, but you can very easily say it’s just mean reversion.

In other words, we’re not that far from where we would have been, had we kept using our credit cards (instead of stimulus money):

All time high in credit card debt

We had a lull, then a spike, to get to the current $1.13T total.

Other kinds of borrowing, like auto (and mortgages, not pictured) are rolling over a bit. But that makes sense, given that rates are higher for cars and mortgages.

If you want to be pessimistic, you might say, “credit card debt is accelerating rapidly.”

That’s definitely true, and if it keeps going at this pace, then you might raise an (inflationary) eyebrow, but growth usually cools in Q1 (after holiday shopping is done).1

Delinquencies rising

The other reason to be pessimistic (should you choose) is that delinquencies are rising, especially for credit card, and auto:

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Random Walk to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Moses Sternstein
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More