Based on what I can see by checking the resources, only the first chart includes both goods and services. I'm not trying to nitpick, but the focus on goods vs services in the broader trade discussion is frustrating to me. Service exports as a % of what we "manufacture" are real, valuable, and (I bet) growing--and they are basically absent from the broader discussion. I'd be curious to hear your perspective on this...
We run a service surplus but it's much smaller than the goods deficit and the gap is getting bigger. Personally, I'm not persuaded that the deficit is something problematic in and of itself. It's symptomatic of something very problematic ie the budget deficit, but blaming trade is a bit like blaming the grocery store for eating too much crap
I share your skepticism that a trade deficit is a prima facie problem - but POTUS doesn't, so that measuring stick appears to be driving Exec branch policy for the foreseeable, which is no bueno, IMO. So many bigger issues to work on that are just...not getting worked on.
Thanks for your work, really appreciate it and get lots from it...please keep at it.
Buying trillions of an asset and then trashing it with a fire sale isn’t a particularly good trading strategy, but I don’t really think these East Asians are the long term planners they are made out to be.
On the flip side the fact that USG only have a five or six year average maturity is such a massive own goal. You think that maybe before we blow out our national credit we make sure we’ve got a locked in long term fixed rate rather than a teaser intro rate that will reset.
this is my new go-to blog for economics
I’m curious why you provide trading data/charts that don’t include services - seems like this omission distorts the picture.
Services are included!
Based on what I can see by checking the resources, only the first chart includes both goods and services. I'm not trying to nitpick, but the focus on goods vs services in the broader trade discussion is frustrating to me. Service exports as a % of what we "manufacture" are real, valuable, and (I bet) growing--and they are basically absent from the broader discussion. I'd be curious to hear your perspective on this...
We run a service surplus but it's much smaller than the goods deficit and the gap is getting bigger. Personally, I'm not persuaded that the deficit is something problematic in and of itself. It's symptomatic of something very problematic ie the budget deficit, but blaming trade is a bit like blaming the grocery store for eating too much crap
I share your skepticism that a trade deficit is a prima facie problem - but POTUS doesn't, so that measuring stick appears to be driving Exec branch policy for the foreseeable, which is no bueno, IMO. So many bigger issues to work on that are just...not getting worked on.
Thanks for your work, really appreciate it and get lots from it...please keep at it.
Buying trillions of an asset and then trashing it with a fire sale isn’t a particularly good trading strategy, but I don’t really think these East Asians are the long term planners they are made out to be.
On the flip side the fact that USG only have a five or six year average maturity is such a massive own goal. You think that maybe before we blow out our national credit we make sure we’ve got a locked in long term fixed rate rather than a teaser intro rate that will reset.