I find the DOGE section unconvincing. The 2nd plots y-axis is a chart crime. I wouldn't call a reduction from ~3000 to ~2600 federal employees a "dramatic" reduction in size.
The first plot seems to flatten, but is small SNR to attribute anything to DOGE and also stabilizes at the max value? Not sure what point you want to make with the last plot.
A 15% rif (off an upwards inflection) is pretty substantial--the counterfactual matters when you consider (a) how much the fed gov't was hiring; and (b) how much the state gov'ts have picked up the slack. Point about spending is just that . . . I agree that SS and Healthcare are mostly runaway trains, but there are a lot of people saying "spending increased, lololol" and that's largely attributable to interest payments, not present day policy. I think it's fair to say that DOGE was/is more successful than people want to believe.
ACA subsidies got cut 1/1/2026. MA rates are finalized, they are still below trend even after a boost from the initial proposed. Work requirements are hard to forecast because states will try to game them, but they will have some impact.
All the healthcare stocks are way down this year, which tells you what you need to know.
I find the DOGE section unconvincing. The 2nd plots y-axis is a chart crime. I wouldn't call a reduction from ~3000 to ~2600 federal employees a "dramatic" reduction in size.
The first plot seems to flatten, but is small SNR to attribute anything to DOGE and also stabilizes at the max value? Not sure what point you want to make with the last plot.
Yeah me neither lol. Sooo we’re back to Dec 2024 levels of govt employees? Wow
A 15% rif (off an upwards inflection) is pretty substantial--the counterfactual matters when you consider (a) how much the fed gov't was hiring; and (b) how much the state gov'ts have picked up the slack. Point about spending is just that . . . I agree that SS and Healthcare are mostly runaway trains, but there are a lot of people saying "spending increased, lololol" and that's largely attributable to interest payments, not present day policy. I think it's fair to say that DOGE was/is more successful than people want to believe.
If we take the military and transfer payments off the table, DOGE did a decent job with the rest.
I would also note that the Trump admin has done a lot in terms of cutting Medicaid, Medicare, and ACA.
have those cuts kicked in yet?
ACA subsidies got cut 1/1/2026. MA rates are finalized, they are still below trend even after a boost from the initial proposed. Work requirements are hard to forecast because states will try to game them, but they will have some impact.
All the healthcare stocks are way down this year, which tells you what you need to know.