Finally some creaking in the hard data (maybe)

Mostly, the hard data says, "this is fine," but maybe things are changing?

• a tale of freight, but little horror

• did consumers hiccup? maybe yes, maybe no

• hotels are not-so-empty

• bankruptcies are rising, and not just any kind of bankruptcy

• your ad [not] here

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Sohn Investment Conference

Random Walk will once again be at the NY Sohn Investment Conference, May 14. It’s great. You should come, and if you do, make sure to say “hi.”

Also, get 20% off with the code RandomWalk20

Recaps from last year (one and two).

It’s worth it, and it’s for a good cause. Plus, 20% off with the code RandomWalk20. 

See you there!

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Some evidence of pain in the hard data?

Like everyone else, I keep looking for evidence that potentially massive price increases on Chinese imports are translating into some demonstrable economic slowdown.

I continue to mostly come up empty, but perhaps there are some cracks starting to show?

I mean, this happened:

My toilet paper has a “supply chain issue.”

😬

Container ships not-incoming

One thing that’s almost certainly true is that imports from China have, in fact, slowed substantially.

We know that the vast majority of Chinese goods arrive by container ship, and container ships have stopped arriving:

Goldman

Container ship volume has dropped by ~40% from where it was most of 2024.

There is no universe where a complete collapse of inbound shipping from China doesn’t cause some pain, at least in the near term. Too many businesses, especially smaller ones, rely on Chinese imports to sell stuff, and if they’re not importing, it means they’re not selling.

So that’s concerning.

But, on the other hand: