Search is dying, long-live google

Even if search is toast, the spare parts are plenty tasty

• search is dying (in some fashion or another)

• how much for whatever’s left? $1T?

• AI is not taking your job, the latest entrants

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Search is dying, long-live google

It’s google day, and by now, we’ll all probably have heard the news that search is dying. (Or that search is out-performing—everyone is expecting Google to beat—but for present purposes, idc.)

And there’s also never been a better time to invest in Google.

Wait, wut?

Yes, you heard me, Random Walk is officially long GOOGL 0.00%↑ even as search dies.¹ I’ll explain (briefly).

Search is dying (in some fashion or another)

Let’s assume for a moment that search, as we know it, is dead in the water.

Anecdotally, I use search less and less (and didn’t even use it that much to begin with), but it’s also just hard to see why anyone would prefer search to what the LLMs can offer.

But also, the death of search keeps showing up in the data:

Man Institute

Share of ChatGPT users who also use google is shrinking.

As more people adopt ChatGPT, that share will increasingly be zero-sum with search.

In general, google’s global share of search continues to slide:

BofA

Search is losing ~1.5 pp of total share every year.

OK, search is far from dead.

Search is still by far the biggest game in town, but its share is slipping, so let’s just write search off completely to a 0 anyway. That’s an insane assumption, but we’re gonna do it.

What else?