*Special Announcement* Random Walk, a Mission Statement

Random Walk delivers the what's for and what's what of Random Walk, an Idea Company

Before we get to the main event (which probably just hit your email), I have an important announcement to make: Random Walk the newsletter is officially a publication of Random Walk the Idea Company.

Lol, wut?

That’s a fair question, so let me explain: As some of you know, I started this newsletter, while wrangling my day job as Head of Growth for System2—System2 is a data science startup that is most succinctly described as a Palantir for hedge funds. Very smart and talented people. You should check it out.

But, as Random Walk grew, it began to take on a life of its own, such that it’s now become obvious to me that I have to (and want to) treat it accordingly. And that’s exactly what I’ve done. As of today, I am continuing this newsletter (and more) with no other day job to wrangle. Random Walk is my sun, my moon, my everything.¹A genuine thank you to System2 for all the camaraderie and support, but the time has come for Random Walk to stand on its own two feet.

[NB: What follows is something of a mission statement and call to arms. If you don’t care, RW isn’t offended. Just skip to the end.]

OK, great. We get it. You need more paying subscribers now.

True.

But what is an Idea Company?

Another great question. You see, Random Walk is more than just a newsletter (even if it’s pretty great as just a newsletter). It’s an Idea Company, whose guiding ethos is that there is alpha in ideas.

What that means in the broadest sense is that while consensus beta is good and useful, so far as it goes, there is value—perhaps even outsized value—in knowing things that you’re not “supposed” to know. I’m obviously not referring to government conspiracies or the “stuff the media won’t tell you.” I’m referring to ideas or observations (or really strings of ideas and observations) that, for whatever reason, are either (a) outside the consensus or on the fringes of consensus; and/or (b) fall outside yours (or anyone’s) typical information-mix, such that if you know one of these things, you’re not supposed to be aware of the other (let alone draw inferences between the two).

Heuristically, the pursuit of idea alpha presupposes that serendipity is underrated, that curiosity is not just for school children, and that contrarian or “first principles” reasoning is productive and useful.

Now, the tricky thing is that not every contrarian hot-take, armchair autodidact or whimsical aside has alpha. Alpha means that the idea (or ideas) helps explain the world (or some part of it) better than Beta. It has to be enduring, relevant and well-founded . . . but nonetheless something under- or over-weighted by the consensus model (which not only requires that you understand and engage with Beta, but appreciate that consensus is, in all likelihood, similarly motivated by the discovery of enduring, relevant, and well-founded ideas).

Foxes aren’t better than hedgehogs, they’re just different. So when consensus is right (as it often is), you tip your cap, and look for alpha elsewhere.²

I didn’t say idea alpha was easy. Just that it exists, and Random Walk is going to find it (or die trying).³

So what does an idea company do?

For now, Random Walk the Idea Company publishes Random Walk the newsletter.

But the goal is to discover idea alpha by cultivating the habits, instincts, processes and people that make that possible. That will include other newsletters/content, in-person events, consulting, investing, and other forms of collaboration in furtherance of that goal. Making order out of chaos in new and different ways is a valuable thing to do, so I’m not terribly concerned by a shortage of applications. If you’d like to stay in the loop, please drop your info here.

The truth is, however, is that while I’ve built various products (and helped build various companies), I’ve never built an Idea Company before, so you’ll have to bear with me, while I experiment a bit.⁴

For its part, Random Walk the newsletter captures the core ethos by going wide and focusing on data, constrained as I am by the attention span of my readers, the medium I operate in, and the resources (currently) at my disposal. Random Walk goes deep(ish), but only if you follow along over time. RW has no secret intel, or original ideas (because those don’t exist). Random Walk puts a funhouse filter on the firehose of information that’s already out there, and tries surface the under-appreciated things that are nonetheless enduring and relevant to the task of “understanding the world” (however Sisyphean that task may be).

Order out of chaos, in new and different ways.

You, the audience, similarly reflect the underlying ethos of idea alpha. If you read RW, you are some version of a generalist, polymath, and infovore. Professionally, you’re all over the place, including mostly investors, data people, start up people and real estate people, but also plenty of doctors, and lawyers, and everything in between. By disposition, however, RW readers are the same: curious, cross-functional, and compelled to discover new things and conquer new lands.

You’re an idiot. Why would you do such a thing?

Partly, because yes, I’m an idiot.

But really, other than the obvious reasons (e.g. there’s both motive and opportunity, and a right to win), I suppose that if someone else built an Idea Company, I’d think to myself “wtf are you talking about? I sure wish I’d built that.” I have a tremendous amount of respect for—and learn a tremendous amount from—the companies and entrepreneurs that I meet. But rarely, if ever, do I think to myself “I sure wish I’d built that.”

At another level, consider Random Walk, the Idea Company a (modest) revolt against—and an opportunity created by—the hyper-specialization, credential-counting and swim-laning of our culture and economy. It’s in fact good to “think differently” and learn horizontally. There’s gold in them hills. Not all of the gold, but at least some of the gold, and more than we currently think.

Come and join the fun.

1. Professionally. Technically, my wife and kids are my sun, my moon, my everything. Sorry RW. You understand.

2. To be clear, sometimes, and perhaps most of the time, ex-consensus ideas are ex-consensus because they’re wrong. It’s similarly true that domain expertise, focus and experience are valued precisely because they’re all very good ways of not being stupid. There is also a fine line between discovering a differentiated view of things, and being a smartass.

In the pursuit of idea alpha, Random Walk is very confident that it will be wrong, stupid, and a smartass, often at the same time, time and time again. That’s not the goal, and it certainly won’t be true every time, but it’s the cost of doing business. The exercise is equal parts precociousness and humility—part of being a good polymath is knowing where your expertise ends and true domain expertise begins. But you can’t venture out of your comfort zone without making mistakes (or walk a fine line without tripping over it).

3. Again, not me literally. As a professional endeavor, I mean.

4. I would also note that it’s amazing how people offer to give you money when you don’t ask for it. I’m not taking any risk capital, at the moment, but perhaps I will once I have a clearer idea of what I’m going to do with it. For now, we bootstrap. So subscribe to what I’ve got and what’s coming!