Where are people moving, and the real escape from NY (plus other real estate charts)
Net-migration; New Yorkers stay for the cheap rents; more vacancy; self-storage preaches to the converted
Orlando, so hot right now? Plus other migration stars
The real reason people leave NYC (hint: it’s not housing prices)
vacancy rates climb, as the housing not-crisis continues to not be a crisis
we used to make things, now we store things where we used to make things, and there’s probably some symbolic significance, but who knows
👉👉👉Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun. Orlando, so hot right now?
Random Walk periodically checks in on net migration flows, i.e. where are people moving to and where are they moving from.
People tend to move to where the action is, and the action tends to follow the people. So, if you’re interested in where things are happening not only today, but in a few years from now, then people-moves is a good place to look.
And where are people moving?
Pretty much the same places they’ve been moving:
It’s the sunbelt atop the leaderboard, with the coastal enclaves atop the laggardboard.
As per usual.
Well, the real leaders are Random Walk’s old friend, Columbus, and then Indi, Denver and Cleveland (almost in that order).
Basically, the stars continue to the stars, while the fading centers of attention continue to fade. And don’t be fooled by Miami—it’s still a star, it’s just getting even more exclusive (unlike NY, LA, Boston, SF and Washington, which are seeing wealthier outflows).
The one somewhat surprising name—the only star to see a reversal of fortune (at least for now)—is Orlando.
Orlando has been one of the faster growing places in the nation, and the rest of Florida continues to be a popular destination (regardless of the weather), hence my surprise.
That’s also why, from a developer’s perspective, yes inventory is building in the Sunbelt, but people keep moving to the Sunbelt, so absorption will come sooner of later. While the stork is generally not on our side, it is on the side of at least some places in the country.1
If that’s no longer true in Orlando, that could be troublesome. Idk, maybe there’s a data issue and it’s all just nothing.
Or maybe Orlando, like Miami, is just becoming more exclusive. To wit:
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