A new EV king

Daily Data: Checking in on the EV transition and its second-order effects

Tip your cap to the engineers and the optimists.

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Daily Data

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EVs new top seller

Motor City, China

There’s a new top dog on an important global leaderboard.

When it comes to EVs, the Chinese carmaker BYD has surpassed Tesla as the world’s EV maker:

BYD is now seller of the year, even if its extraordinary rise has been on the map for a bit (and here).

Germany seethes

My guess is that this matters more for Europe and European carmakers than anything else. German carmakers have to be seething as BYD eats their lunch, likely with heavy Chinese subsidies, but truthfully I don’t really know.

VW is now no longer considered to be a “contender” in this game.

BYD and Tesla make EVs a two-man game

Executives at Ford flagged the EV market as a two-man game, a while back, which speaks to the structural and technological advantages that BYD and Tesla have on everyone else.¹

BYD’s manufacturing prowess notwithstanding, the subsidy part is important, because while other OEMs tethered their EV efforts to a luxury market that evaporated—another RW theme—and a distribution network that does what it wants, Tesla is pretty nimble when it comes to pricing.

Can BYD compete without subsidies? I have no idea.

In this US market, Tesla is running away with things:

As the FT points out, it’s the other expert affordable carmakers, Kia and Hyundai, who are gaining any ground.

Fine.

Picking the right EV jockey isn’t really my point.

From Random Walk’s perspective, the more interesting thing is the ongoing tension between our twin commitments to EVs, on the one hand, and decoupling with China and its “grip” on the EV value chain, on the other.

It’s a tension, and it doesn’t seem possible to accomplish both at the same time.

That continues to be the case, except now, even more so.

Tip your cap to the optimists and the engineers

Stepping back, the rate and pace of EV adoption has been extraordinary.