Congestion on my mind

Traffic, commuting, and work-from-home are in the air again

• back to the [coffee] grind

• hybrid reigns supreme, but some blacksiding at the water cooler

• 10 best commute times

• congestion winners and losers . . . woe to Denver

---

👉👉👉Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun. 

Congestion on my mind

Random Walk is going to take a break from Uber drivers to write about Uber drivers.

Really?

Yes, really.

For whatever reason, congestion and commute times (plus some WFH) happen to be de jour—maybe because it’s UN week—and surely some part of that equation is explained by the prevalence of gig-drivers and delivery-people, roaming the streets like never before. Either way, Ima write about it.

You see, the gig-economy and the work-commute-life patterns that emerged during the pandemic always seemed to go hand-in-hand.

The more routinized the daily grind (i.e. commute every day from point A to B, using subway, commuter rail, and/or drive, but in all events the same thing, day-in-day-out), means the less opportunity for episodic gig needs. Conversely, as people migrate away from urbanity, disrupt the daily commute, and spend more time “sometimes here, and sometimes there,” then the more appealing insta-ing and uber-ing become.¹

Less routine, more gigs.

Now, however, as the hybrid-life comes under pressure (or so they want you to think), that gig-related congestion is becoming an inconvenience to the drones who pine for everyday droning. The old congestion wants its streets back from the new congestion.

Little do they know, however, that hybrid-life and its symbiotic relationship with gig work, might be the last lifeline to a slowing economy . . .

Or maybe not, but that’s my transition, and I’m sticking with it.

On to traffic and commuting.

Back to the grind

Apparently, away-from-home coffee consumption has regained its pre-pandemic peak:

Out-of-home coffee consumption resumed its highest level since January 2020 . . . according to exclusive consumer polling published ahead of National Coffee Day on September 29.

The Fall 2024 National Coffee Data Trends (NCDT) analysis, conducted by Dig Insights on behalf of the National Coffee Association (NCA) found that home remains the most popular place for coffee consumption, with 81% of past-day coffee drinkers having coffee at home, compared to 36% of past-day coffee drinkers having coffee out-of-home. At-home and out-of-home coffee consumption are not mutually exclusive; some coffee drinkers will have consumed coffee in multiple locations.

NCA

Really, only 36% of coffee drinkers have coffee out-of-home? And that’s the prepandemic high?

This is supposed to be bullish for return-to-office initiatives, but people should be drinking a lot more coffee.

But sure, taking the study (which I can’t seem to find) at face value, then I guess if people are getting coffee out, then they’re getting closer to their old routines, maybe. Good for office working.

Hybrid still reigns supreme, but there’s some backsliding

In general, fully-remote work has predictably declined, but it’s still way more prevalent than before the pandemic.

Nationally, the share has doubled from ~6% to ~13% (down from the pandemic peak of ~18%), but some places are still way more remote than others:

ResiClub

Unsurprisingly, the largest shares of fully remote work are along the coasts (and Austin+Denver).

Ironically enough, the biggest “offender” of fully-remote work is the nation’s capital, which has nearly 4x’ed its fully remote share from 6.3% to 22%. Feel free to draw your own conclusions about what that means for the work culture of Washingtonians and Northern Virginians.

Fully-remote work was never going to be a permanent fixture for the vast majority of people.

On the other hand, the stickier pattern (as-expected) is hybrid schedules, where Tu-Wed-Thurs continue to be the most popular in-office routine.

Now, RTO had largely stabilized ~60% for the last few years, and the 3 day in-office week very much appeared to be the new-normal. On balance, Random Walk considers that a good thing. All-day-every-day isn’t necessary to capture the obvious benefits of in-person work, while it does come at the expense of the obvious benefits of some time closer to home.

Unfortunately, there’s some evidence though that office attendance is creeping up, ever so slightly. Random Walk has long featured the security card swipes and cellphone pinging, but there’s a fun, new dataset to illustrate the point: