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Data-driven real estate, with Lance Lambert of ResiClub Analytics

What's really going on in the for-sale real estate market, with the real estate data impresario, Lance Lambert of ResiClub Analytics

Lance Lambert founded ResiClub Analytics to be the go-to place for data-driven insights on the for-sale real estate market.

ResiClub’s charts appear frequently on Random Walk, but more importantly, ResiClub does a uniquely excellent job of mixing the data with the anecdata, including some of the best boots-on-the-ground commentary straight from the publicly traded homebuilders.

We spent an hour+ jamming on all things residential real estate, and probably could have spent another 10 hours. Among other things, we cover:

  • hot and cold markets, leading indicators of a broader downturn, and differentiating between ‘superstar’ cities

  • revisiting the pandemic demand shifts

  • immigration and other demographic changes as demand drivers, and the fallout (or the lack thereof)

  • innovation in homebuilding (or the lack thereof)

  • M&A landscape, and other market color from the builders themselves


Catch up on everything you missed

The best way to catch up on everything you missed is to skim the archive

TAKE ME TO THE RECAP

There’s a lot of goodies. You don’t want to miss ‘em.


Supply and Demand Tell the Story

00:00 Introduction, and the story behind doing data and real estate well

04:41 Pandemic demand shift in Housing

09:34 Housing Supply is VERY responsive to demand

11:03 Superstar Cities always trade at a premium, but the 'burbs are a different sort of problem

14:20 What really caused the 'affordability crisis' and other lessons from the Sun Belt

16:18 The Homebuilder's Perspective is the Signal in the Noise

Hot and cold markets, and other potential signals of a downturn (if you were looking for that sort of thing)

19:41 The softest markets, the condo-maintenance problem, and is a 'crash' in the offing

23:36 If housing goes south, what might fallout look like?

24:52 The case of Austin, the relative lack of distress, and who (if anyone) is getting squeezed

28:54 Leading indicators of a broader downturn

33:01 The role of demographics in the supply-demand picture

35:09 Immigration was a demand driver, and now it's gone

Homebuilders provide signal in the noise, thoughts on innovation, niche strategies, M&A and other market commentary

40:30 Insights from Homebuilder Earnings Reports

44:19 Emerging Markets and Builder Innovations

45:54 "Hot" markets right now, and institutional goes “risk off”

49:48 Institutional builders are the VC for niche strategies

52:48 M&A predictions from the CEO of a public builder

54:36 NAR Settlement and Its Implications

Real estate data, the online listing wars, the real insurance cost story, and concluding thoughts

58:56 Are there blindspots in the Real Estate data?

01:01:07 Closer look into the online listing wars and the owning the consumer, end-to-end

01:05:14 The real story behind rising insurance costs (and it's not Climate Change)

01:07:32 Concluding Thoughts


Here’s a link to youtube, if you’d prefer it that way.


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