Archive - Random Walk

AI everything cycle, and SaaS strikes back (maybe)

The paradox of the AI everything cycle that's bullish for pretty much only one thing

Jan 12 • Moses Sternstein

If AI is taking jobs, then where are all the productivity gains?

Markets are assigning basically $0 to the field, which is weird, if the field is getting so productive with AI that it doesn't need any workers, anymore

Jan 8 • Moses Sternstein

12 Months of Random Walk

The year in macro and capital markets, as told by a year of Random Walk

Jan 5 • Moses Sternstein

5 Idea Friday: new media step change, student groans, ecomm, Palmetto State, and unemployed weirdness

5 Quick hitters on this and that for the first weekend of 2026

Jan 2 • Moses Sternstein

December 2025

Assets or software, and at what price?

There's actually some money left on the AI table, but it all comes down to price

Dec 29, 2025 • Moses Sternstein

'Beggar thy Neighbor' China Trade w/Arnold Kling & Random Walk

Wherein the good Prof. Kling and I learn to stop worrying and love the China Shock (maybe)

Dec 26, 2025 • Moses Sternstein and Arnold Kling

1:00:21

Slow descent or ready for takeoff?

Why not both? Some thoughts on what the new year might bring

Dec 23, 2025 • Moses Sternstein

Blessed is the one true judge

Brief hiatus to mourn the passing of my mom

Dec 16, 2025 • Moses Sternstein

AI rubber hits road, when? (cont.)

Continuing to riff on the haves and have-nots of the AI trade

Dec 11, 2025 • Moses Sternstein

AI rubber hits road, when?

10+ charts on the transformation of AI promise into AI results (or the lack thereof)

Dec 8, 2025 • Moses Sternstein

5 Idea Friday: capex, slow n' steady (and others)

The surprisingly linear ascent of tech capex, mysteries of biotech capital allocation, ex-chinese etailers, never go full French, and CRE's bottom (and…

Dec 5, 2025 • Moses Sternstein

Of Waymo, holiday shopping, and the buyer's market for homes

Riffing on themes in 10+ Charts

Dec 4, 2025 • Moses Sternstein

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts