Mixed signals from the labor market

Daily Data: Employers say they're hiring. Employees, say "nuh uh."

Daily Data

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Mixed signals from the labor market

There’s some more weirdness coming from labor market indicators.

Overall, the picture remains very strong—low unemployment and rising wages.¹

That said, two signals came in a little weird, suggesting perhaps something rotten:

• first, state census data showed swiftly rising unemployment in some big states, and then

• Glassdoor survey data showed a lot of employees rapidly losing confidence in the future of their companies.

It’s still probably noise, but y’know, one on top of the other, makes you notice.

Anyways, add a third bit of weirdness to the mix: employers and households have diverging views of the labor market.

What does that mean?

Definitely hiring or definitely not-hiring?

Well, if you ask employers, they say they’re adding a lot of employees. But if you ask regular people, they say “nu uh, there are fewer of us getting hired (and, oh by the way, I’m definitely not quitting).”

‘Definitely hiring’ v. ‘definitely not-hiring.’ Strange.

That disagreement is reflected by the blue line (employers) weirdly diverging from the light blue line (households), on the lefthand side:

Households and employers disagree about the direction of hiring

Households say hiring is the pits, and employers say they’re hiring like gangbusters. Usually, they generally say the same basic thing.

So is there hiring or not-hiring?

It’s a real headscratcher.

Where could all the workers be coming from?

Wait, no it’s not, a headscratcher at all.