A tale of three prices (for oil)
Quick notes on the other regime change
I wrote this late last night, but messed up the scheduled-send. So, pushing now. Better late than never.
oil prices split into three
no one knows what’s happening
…except maybe this one guy, who has some astute observations about what’s happened before, and why this time may be different
reasons for optimism, but also, there’s almost no way there’s at least some pain
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While the general timeline toggles between “the war is total victory,” and “the war is total disaster,” Random Walk keeps a steady grip on “it’s too soon to tell, and we lack the information, anyway,” which is perhaps less viral, but nonetheless the most correct.
Cost of oil depends on who’s asking
That said, what’s going on in commodities right now, is pretty wild. I mean, the price of oil is . . . well, it depends on who you’re buying from:
Oman is selling crude at ~20% higher prices than Dubai (and now even higher) . . . while in the US, oil is wiggling around a lowly $100.
It seems hard to expect that a commodity would continue to trade like this, since it’s perhaps the core attribute of a commodity that it’s generally governed by global supply-and-demand. But, lol, wouldn’t that be a BRICS realignment backfire, if it turns out that the oil market fractures into two . . . Hormuzian oil:Expensive—US Oil:Cheap.
Not that this is a laughing matter, in the main.
Apparently, demand-destruction is already underway for Asian markets (where ~80% of Strait traffic is typically bound).
But, at the same time, short interest on oil is apparently quite high, as well?
Short interest on the IEO 0.00%↑ is near its pandemic high.
From of all of this I conclude: no one knows what’s going on, but hold on to your butts!
ICYMI
Structural realignment, accelerate!
For a much smarter conclusion, however, I find inspiration elsewhere.
