Sitemap - 2026 - Random Walk

"ICE has not improved labor markets(?)

A New Bull Rises

Durable goods different; terminal values; a funny thing about energy costs; Japanese future; Hidden healthcare taxes

Price Check on Terminal Value

Uncharted waters (reprise); Almighty Consumer check; Healthcare[-fraud] GDP?; AI-Lawyering for Me; Longs, but not shorts

The marks aren't high enough?

DOGE ftw!; Luxury woes; Manufacturing Boomlet; Real AI threat; Housing Supply is *perfect*

Uncharted waters, blissfully unaware

Michael Burry Chimes in...When it comes to housing, it’s the interest rates, stupid

When to cut bait?

AI-Beneficiaries-in-Training

Curley Reprise; Density Change; Fading Fade America; Redemption Risks; Generational Flippening

A tale of three prices (for oil)

Can't Lose; Curley Effects; Zyn Tax; Homebuyer Shortage; BDC Woes

Let's see what the Cycle Dragged in

Gas compression, jobs, dispersion and vol, nuclear, and Hormuzing

Secondaries, deeper, stronger, liquider

5 Idea Friday: Chopping Block; No Booze; PE Hard(er) Mode; One Neat Trick for More Robots; Housing Shortage, Interrupted

Citrini asks all the wrong questions, mostly

5 Idea Friday: Sugar High; SaaS and News; Retail Rules Options; 'Jobless Productivity Boom'; Sustainability Lost

The Jobless Productivity Boom

The hottest thing in employee comp, and other labor market missives

5 Idea Friday: China trade; Small cap productivity; It's getting weird out there; No more Mr. Lender Nice Guy; Clearing VC Backlog

Inference and insinuations

5 Idea Friday: market viz; zombie funds; still no housing shortage; illiquid becomes liquid; bring your own energy (coal too)

A chart dive on the PE-Direct Lending Scene

SaaS Attacked (ongoing)

5 Idea Friday: EU lags; AI payback (to whom); It's getting better (reprise); The predictors; Nothing Ever Happens Index

You got to admit it's getting better

5 Idea Friday: SaaS, licensing, houses, beauty, and small caps

AI everything cycle, and SaaS strikes back (maybe)

If AI is taking jobs, then where are all the productivity gains?

12 Months of Random Walk

5 Idea Friday: new media step change, student groans, ecomm, Palmetto State, and unemployed weirdness

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