Sitemap - 2026 - Random Walk

Things Are Cheaper (If You Know Where to Look)

Of Burritos and the Price of Status

Have Your Burrito And Eating It Too

Warsh Doesn’t Want to Be God King, But The Street Still Clamors For Signs and Omens

Open For Open Weight Business

An Epic Inversion

K-Shape *Poof*

Capital Intensity🤝Capital Light

The Shift from Token-Maxxing to Token-Optimizing is Good, Actually

Of Economic Regime Change, and Anti-tech Sentiment

Online Shopping Is Stepping Into AI-Overdrive

Token Maxxer 1%

Another Big Defection from Team Housing Shortage

Binge-Drinking With Your Pa

Frictionful Intelligence

Marks are [High][Low][Just Right]

Job Growth, Starting From the Bottom (and Still There)

Oil Shock or Nah (and the Machinations of Iran's Biggest Customer)

Retail on a Heater

Why Isn't the On-Ramp Working?

Chart Dive on Private Credit, PE/VC

That Escalated Quickly

"ICE has not improved labor markets(?)

A New Bull Rises

Durable goods different; terminal values; a funny thing about energy costs; Japanese future; Hidden healthcare taxes

Price Check on Terminal Value

Uncharted waters (reprise); Almighty Consumer check; Healthcare[-fraud] GDP?; AI-Lawyering for Me; Longs, but not shorts

The marks aren't high enough?

DOGE ftw!; Luxury woes; Manufacturing Boomlet; Real AI threat; Housing Supply is *perfect*

Uncharted waters, blissfully unaware

Michael Burry Chimes in...When it comes to housing, it’s the interest rates, stupid

When to cut bait?

AI-Beneficiaries-in-Training

Curley Reprise; Density Change; Fading Fade America; Redemption Risks; Generational Flippening

A tale of three prices (for oil)

Can't Lose; Curley Effects; Zyn Tax; Homebuyer Shortage; BDC Woes

Let's see what the Cycle Dragged in

Gas compression, jobs, dispersion and vol, nuclear, and Hormuzing

Secondaries, deeper, stronger, liquider

5 Idea Friday: Chopping Block; No Booze; PE Hard(er) Mode; One Neat Trick for More Robots; Housing Shortage, Interrupted

Citrini asks all the wrong questions, mostly

5 Idea Friday: Sugar High; SaaS and News; Retail Rules Options; 'Jobless Productivity Boom'; Sustainability Lost

The Jobless Productivity Boom

The hottest thing in employee comp, and other labor market missives

5 Idea Friday: China trade; Small cap productivity; It's getting weird out there; No more Mr. Lender Nice Guy; Clearing VC Backlog

Inference and insinuations

5 Idea Friday: market viz; zombie funds; still no housing shortage; illiquid becomes liquid; bring your own energy (coal too)

A chart dive on the PE-Direct Lending Scene

SaaS Attacked (ongoing)

5 Idea Friday: EU lags; AI payback (to whom); It's getting better (reprise); The predictors; Nothing Ever Happens Index

You got to admit it's getting better

5 Idea Friday: SaaS, licensing, houses, beauty, and small caps

AI everything cycle, and SaaS strikes back (maybe)

If AI is taking jobs, then where are all the productivity gains?

12 Months of Random Walk

5 Idea Friday: new media step change, student groans, ecomm, Palmetto State, and unemployed weirdness