Sitemap - 2025 - Random Walk

Can the US grow its way out of debt?

Riffing on themes: fading fade america trade; winning the trade war; stablecoins; and the trouble with ETFs

The Rotation to the National Nursing Home is running out of foreign born workers

Stablecoins have lots of uses, right?

Meta makes the dumbest models

'China is 'losing' the trade war' is probably true, but also irrelevant

New homes are partying like its 2020

Alex Kolicich of 8VC dishes on China, VC Dumb Money, Inflections in Biotech, Nvidia's Moat, and more

Fading the Fade America Trade?

The IPO market is open, same as it ever was, and always has been

Netflix having a blockbuster moment

10 Charts on Mobility (and the mobile mobiles who mobile)

Making your own tailwinds

More with less is the only thing that matters (and 9 other labor market charts)

Making Secondaries a Primary Thing

The trouble with ETFs and other missives

SumZero & AlphaSense Investor Pitch Day

Too much solar

[From the Archive] What's really going on in the labor markets

Housing Shortage has been cancelled

Donna Summers Phase (reprise)

7 AI-related charts

A tale of two pandemic cycles

Is the wealth channel the bagholder?

Analysts are almost always too optimistic about earnings

AI is not taking white collar jobs

Sohn 2025

Secondaries will not save VC (reprise)

YouTube is under-monetized (reprise)

Where to find the most expensive gas and electricity

Buyout funds are saving the worst for last, aren't they

Electrification of China

Very important!

Consumers are maybe not-so-fine

Evan Armstrong on making tech content that's smart

“Busier than 99% of Austin drivers”

Builders did what now?

Finally some creaking in the hard data (maybe)

Private credit is really going to get it this time . . . right?

Are we "winning" the trade war

Unlocking liquidity in VC the old fashioned way, with Will Quist (Slow Ventures)

People are very negative about AI, and other sundries

Meta and Microsoft reporting for duty

Depression not yet underway

Live with Moses Sternstein

‘It’s a buyer’s market out there’ and other missives from the world of real estate

Secondaries will not save VC (and 8 charts from venture-land)

Soft-Data > Hard Data

AI Wars, TikTok's back, and the EU's trade war

Searching for signs of a slowdown

(Still) no exits for private capital [republished]

Regional Bank opines on the real reckoning [republished]

7 more tariff charts

Steelmanning Liberation Day (or trying to)

It's a good time to be in the 'volatility laundering' business

Stop making sense of Liberation Day (cont.)

Liberation Day notes (cont.)

Liberation Day notes

Labor market flashes "everything is the same" signals

Hard data > Soft data

Insurance got a *lot* more expensive

[Free Post] Jensen’s law, CoreWeave is the best, AI Search is coming in hot, and a smooth transition to streaming

10 charts: the death of the Almighty Consumer continues to be premature (and other Consumer sundries)

The marks are still probably too damn high (new homes edition)

The marks are still probably too damn high

The Fed is still in a hole, but digging less quickly

Volatility begets volatility, and other sundries

10 interesting real estate charts

Healthcare makes all the jobs . . . but maybe manufacturing too? Other labor market desiderata

Higher Ed is passing the hat around

How's it going on the private side?

March 14, 2025 Weekly Recap & Good Reads + READER SURVEY

Youtube's stats, google's waning search & transmission bottleneck

Prices say panic, but data says otherwise (even more cont.)

Prices say panic, but data says otherwise (cont.)

Prices say panic, but data says otherwise

The other very expensive industrial policy

Poking fun at GDP (and the chart-foulers)

Slower job growth has nothing to do with "policy uncertainty"

Bain & Co. peers into the past, present and future of Private Equity

YouTube is under-monetized

There is no housing shortage (reprised, revisited, and reaffirmed)

March 1, 2025 Weekly Recap & Good Reads

Speed-to-revenue

Living in the future, with Tomasz Tunguz

People are worried about labor market breadth

DOGE-cession freakout

What do hedge funds like?

Walmart says "everything is fine"

It's getting a little tougher for the youngs

Productivity boom?

No chicanery here (again)

DOGE-cession(?)

A nation of introverts? [Republished]

Feb. 16, 2025 Weekly Recap & Good Reads

Model of choice

'Hot' CPI is just noise (except for *maybe* one thing

But who will lend to the lenders?

Flowing into Crypto

Employment growth is a foreign-born story (reprise)

Feb. 8, 2025 Weekly Recap & Good Reads

11 (or 13) Real Estate Charts

Power generation is fine. It’s transmission that’s the problem (reprise)

Random assorted charts (ex-Feds, surprising imports, Temu exemption, more)

What happens to food shopping when you're a GLP-1 agonista?

Steelmanning tariffs (sort of)

Feb. 1, 2025 Weekly Recap & Good Reads

VC performance is still bad, but help is on the way

Riffs on themes: Self-driving & Almighty Cautious Consumerism

Healthcare makes all the jobs (and signing bonuses)

Seven charts about real estate that were made to be gloomy, but really aren't

Power generation is fine. It's transmission that's the problem

Checking under the hood for signs of chicanery

Riffing on white collar, data centers, China, and the Almighty Consumer

McKinsey 'confronts a new demographic reality'

3 vignettes on asset values

Six charts about AI revenue

Higher rates make companies lean, mean, profit generating machines (reprised, revisited)

Eight charts on Chinese imports

Higher rates have made firms stronger, and more improvements are on the way

Earnings, they grow (and not just for Mag whatever)

Riches n' Niches

Paying top dollar because no price is too high

Un-inversion & Data Center Power (reprise)

Optimism unbound and 7 charts to inform and delight

Biggest housing shortage EVER

January 4, 2025 Weekly Recap & Good Reads

Data Centers are already changing electricity consumption